Companies that Survived the Trump Tariffs after "Liberation Day"

Many stocks hit their 52 Week Highs in the months of October and November 2024 in anticipation of the election. However, Trump took a chaos strategy to start his trade negotiations. It seemed to be a play such that the countries could only conclude they had to talk directly to him to get through this administration. That he is the sole head of the US.

Within a week after the blanket global tariffs imposed by the US, countries started selling their US Treasuries and forcing interest rates up quickly. So, Trump backed off back to 10% tariffs on all countries except China - stating he was watching the bond market and seeing that people were getting "yippy".

With the tariff actually then being increased on China to 145%, it seemed he is looking for an annual tax on the US consumers of a set value. China imports are the easy target to achieve this since it has the highest level of imports and consumption.

Now, China can continue to put pressure on bonds, which could result in default of mortgages and start a housing crisis in the US. It may be a great time to get into rental real estate in that many will not be able to afford a mortgage or default on the one they have.

In the near term, I2Guru's play will be to purchase bonds with all future dividends and coupons if the long rate goes over 6%. This is a long play in that 6% is an awesome fixed rate and it is likely that sometime in the next 20 years, bonds will return under 4% - at which time we'd look for dips on Dividend Aristocrats.

Since both bond and stock market values are down due to the chaos of the economic policy. Rebalancing bond allocations seems futile. However, swapping two stocks that both took a loss for one that now has a peak dividend is a play I always look for in a downturn. For example, since DG surged, we traded it for Pfizer.

What was the Impact to the I2Guru 200

We'll wait and see. One thing we can look back on in hindsight is how many of the stocks in I2Guru's current 200 watch list favored.

Many stocks were already falling prior to Annihilation Day and then surged after. They didn't quiet make it back to their 52 week highs from 4Q24, though. But, this list provides a clinic on which stocks survive when people think that interest rates and inflation will rise. It also shows who will suffer from that market sentiment. The biggest money that can be made is when the market consensus is in fear and they are wrong. Some great deals are to be had in such a climate.

Note KSS (Kohls) was already suffering prior. They had a high dividend that when it paid, people wouldn't buy back in. So, it posed a dividend trap that steadily sunk every quarter in. DG was declining all year too, but surged after Annihilation Day. This is true for several in the list. Still, these numbers are very telling.

The winners - energy/natural gas, telecom, healthcare, and coke/McDonalds. The losers, retail, chemical manufacturing, appliances, automobiles, and shipping. If anything, this last week we got a heck of a great benchmark to play defense in the future.

4/11/2025